QB Shuffle: Weighing in on recent QB developments...

I decided to chime in during my brief hiatus to give some thoughts on the quarterback movement so far this off season. For updates sake- I am currently updating my book into a 2011 edition.

Giants went from David Carr to Jim Sorgi as their back-up. Basically a lateral move from a terd sandwich to a terd panini- since the Giants would be screwed either way if one had to play...

David Carr went to the 49ers, who will compete with Alex Smith as their starter- while the 49ers compete for the worst team in the league in the 2010 season.

The Browns cut Derek Anderson after trading for Seneca Wallace. Although Wallace is an okay stop-gap, back-up type, Cleveland should be looking to draft a quarterback high, because the Brady Quinn/Wallace combo is pretty awful.

Attention to teams: Don't fool yourselves about Derek Anderson- he stinks.

The Rams signed AJ Feeley. Why? Probably because they are the Rams. They will continue to be awful. If they don't draft Sam Bradford- they should be kicked out of the league.

The Rams finally cut loose Marc Bulger. Bulger should retire- because- you know- he's horrible.

Washington tendered Jason Campbell with a 1st round pick. You know who's not worth a 1st round pick? Jason Campbell. Same goes for Kyle Orton (1st round), Bruce Gradkowski, Brodie Croyle, Kellen Clemens, and John Beck (2nd round).

The Philadelphia Eagles decided to keep Michael Vick? Why? I don't know. They should have sold high, and let a team like St. Louis talk themselves into Vick. Same goes for the Donovan McNabb/Kevin Kolb scenario. McNabb is really good, but if he's not going to be their in 2011, why not start the Kolb era now, and sell high on McNabb?

By the way- McNabb would be a great fit in Minnesota if you know who retires...

Carolina announced the start of the Matt Moore era. Moore is actually pretty good and deserves a fair shot. For Jake Delhomme, like Matt Hasselbeck, is not a legit starter anymore, but would be an outstanding second stringer. I would love for the Jets to pick up Delhomme.

And finally, Kurt Warner has decided to retire. Luckily for Arizona, Matt Leinart stands as the best starter in the pathetic NFC West right now. Leinart, if given a legit chance, will surprise alot of people.

Free Agents left: Troy Smith could be a possible steal. Rex Grossman would be a great back-up somewhere.

The stay away at all costs list includes: Kyle Boller, Daunte Culpepper, and Josh McCown. If any team signs any one of these guys- it would be fiscally reprehensible. Although, teams are sometimes stupid enough to talk themselves into some of these duds- case in point- somebody just willfully signed David Carr.

The Washington Post: Best Super Bowl Matchup?

The Washington Post recently asked, "What's the best Super Bowl matchup? Colts, Vikings, Saints, Jets -- which storyline do you want to see in XLIV?? Here was my take:

This year, the NFL is lucky enough to be in a win-win scenario in terms of what kind of Super Bowl matchup they will have after this weekend's championship games. Let's examine:

Colts- Saints: Everyone wanted this from the beginning of the year. This would pit the two best teams in football against each other, and would guarantee a lot of excitement and points scored for the casual football fan.

Colts- Vikings: BRETT FAVRE, BRETT FAVRE, BRETT FAVRE....PEYTON MANNING, PEYTON MANNING, PEYTON MANNING. Two Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks, the two most popular quarterbacks in the league, and the winner gets their second Super Bowl ring. Who's not on board with that? Did I mention, Brett Favre might or might not retire after this season?

Jets- Saints: Two punished teams and fan bases, with one finally get over the hump (this also works for a Jets-Vikings match-up). This would also be a rematch of a closer than what the scoreboard indicated regular season matchup, in which the Saints won 24-10.

Jets- Vikings: Favre's old team vs. his new team. Oddly enough, the Green Bay Packers aren't involved in that sentence.

Win-win for everyone!

The Washington Post: Who's Feeling The Heat?

The Washington Post recently asked, "Which team is under the most pressure to win during its divisional playoff game? Here was my take:

Four teams in particular will have some added pressure to an already pressure filled weekend of football. Here they are In reverse order...

4) San Diego Chargers: Not only a Super Bowl favorite, but the window is closing for both LaDainian Tomlinson and Norv Turner. For Tomlinson, his Hall of Fame career is coming to an end in a hurry. He's clearly lost a step or two (or three or four), and this will probably be his last chance of winning a Super Bowl, while still getting meaningful carries. For Norv Turner, this could be it. Let's face it, Turner as a coach, is probably San Diego's biggest weakness. If Turner once again fails to lead this very talented team to the Super Bowl, he could very well be fired (especially with a loss to the Jets).

3) Dallas Cowboys: Even after getting the monkey off their shoulders this month, both Tony Romo and Wade Phillips still have a great deal on the line. This pair has probably the most to gain out of this year's playoffs, but a loss vs. Minnesota would give their critics reason to continue their doubt.

2) Minnesota Vikings: Is this Brett Favre's last year? Are we going to ask this same question every year? Like it or not, if Minnesota loses, the Vikings future would be very much up in the air. Let's face it- Minnesota clearly wouldn't be this good with Tarvaris Jackson as their starter. Also, like Turner in San Diego, Brad Childress is Minnesota's weak link. A playoff loss would make his recent contract extension even more perplexing.

1) Indianapolis Colts: After forfeiting their chance at immortality, all eyes will be on the Colts to see if their "strategy" will pay off with a Super Bowl victory. Personally, I think bad karma will follow the Colts for letting down their fans and the league for essentially giving up a chance to go undefeated. As Michael Irvin said, a team wins the Super Bowl every season, but only one team has gone undefeated and won the Super Bowl.

The Washington Post: Beginner's Luck?

The Washington Post recently asked, "With a rookie quarterback under center and a rookie head coach on the sidelines, how far can the Jets really expect to go in these playoffs?. Here was my take:

The Jets have been the most misunderstood team of the playoffs. Experts have noted that other teams may be better than their records dictate, with many suggesting that the Jets never belonged in the playoffs in the first place. As a Jets fan, I would be the first to admit that the Jets did get gift-wrapped a would-be loss to the Colts, in the Colts' Week 16 forfeit. However, as the Jets stand in the final 8, I could easily make an argument that the 9-7 Jets could have easily been 12-4 and considered in the "elite" class in the NFL.

Remember, the Jets lost 5 games on the last possession (Miami twice, Jacksonville, Buffalo in overtime, and Atlanta)! In fact, the Jets only lost one game this entire season handily. If a few bounces went their way, people would see the Jets in a totally different light. On top of that, the Jets also own the #1 defense and running game. They also have a shut-down corner who can erase future playoff opponents such as Vincent Jackson or Reggie Wayne.

Rex Ryan has instilled a definitive swagger to the organization, and Sanchez has shown signs of greatness (despite what the stats show) sporadically throughout the season.

So why not the Jets?

End of Regular Season Report Card

Based on my Fourcade formula, here's the quarterback report card (minimum 5 starts).

A: Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Brett Favre, Matt Moore, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb

A: Vince Young, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub

B+: Matt Ryan

B: Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, Kyle Orton

C+: Eli Manning

C: Alex Smith, Chad Henne

D+: David Garrard, Shaun Hill

D: Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez,

F: Matt Hasselbeck, Jason Campbell, Jake Delhomme, Josh Freeman, Derek Anderson, Matt Cassel, Trent Edwards, Matthew Stafford, Brady Quinn, Marc Bulger, JaMarcus Russell, Kerry Collins, Daunte Culpepper

QB Shuffle: Week 17 Notes...

The regular season is in the books. Here are my post-weekend notes:

THE CLUTCH:

Up 27-24 with 6:10 remaining, an injured Ben Roethlisberger led Pittsburgh on a time-consuming 83 yard drive, which led to a field goal to go up six points with under a minute to go, to essentially put the game away.

Down 13-10 with 6:59 remaining. Vince Young took advantage of good field position, leading a 28 yard touchdown drive to go up 17-13 with under 5 minutes to go, for the eventual win.

Down 20-16 with 4:33 remaining, Billy Volek led the Chargers on a 58 yard touchdown drive, capped off by a two yard touchdown pass by Volek, to go up 23-20 with less than a minute to go for the victory.

THE non-CLUTCH:

Down 27-24 with just under 7 minutes remaining at the Steelers 16 yard line, back-up Tyler Thigpen threw an awful interception, which cost the Dolphins the tie or possible lead.   Thigpen got another shot with a minute left, down 30-24, but threw another interception to end the game.

Tied at 27 with 4:43 left, Tom Brady threw an interception in their own territory after a rough hit which injured Brady, which led to a Houston touchdown to go up 34-27. Brady did not get a chance to redeem himself because...

Down 34-27 with 1:54 left, back-up Brian Hoyer drove the Patriots 32 yards before throwing two consecutive incompletions for a loss of downs and loss of game.

Down 17-13 with 4:33, Matt Hasselbeck drove the Seahawks 53 yards before throwing two straight incompletions and then the game-losing interception.

Down 21-13 with 3:43 left, JaMarcus Russell threw two bad incompletions, which forced the punt back to Baltimore with 2:54 left. Oakland never got the ball back.

Did You Know:

Tony Romo's career record is 38-17

Philip Rivers is 46-18 as a starter

Jason Campbell is 6-18 in his last 24 games.

Matt Moore has a 6-1 career record.

Charlie Frye is a career 7-16 record

Matt Hasselbeck is 6-15 in the last two seasons.

HOMER REPORT

Really feel great about how the season played out.   Snuck into playoffs despite five losses on last possession, and now Sanchez has a great opportunity to get some playoff experience in only his rookie season.   The Jets have the playoff formula (#1 defense, #1 running game, strong end of season), so it should be a fun month of football.

Confidence Scale (out of 10): 9.0- Snuck into the playoffs, and now are playing the weakest playoff team by far (Bengals), whom they just demolished.   Feeling very good about Saturday.

FOURCADE FORMULA

Based on my Fourcade formula, here are the top 5 and bottom 5 quarterback performances from week 17.
BEST:

1) Brett Favre: 316 yards, 4 touchdowns
2) Jay Cutler: 276 yards, 4 touchdowns
3) Ben Roethlisberger: 220 yards, 3 touchdowns + clutch performance
4) Tony Romo: 311 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception

5) Matt Schaub: 303 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception

WORST:

28) Peyton Manning: 95 yards, 1 interception

29) Kurt Warner: 31 yards

30) Keith Null: 57 yards
31) Mark Brunell: 102 yards, 1 interception

32) Carson Palmer: 0 yards, 1 interception

Week 17 Picks...

Note: Home teams are in CAPS. All Lines courtesy of ESPN.com

BUFFALO (+2.5) over Indianapolis
Jacksonville (+1.5) over CLEVELAND
Chicago (-3.5) over DETROIT
San Francisco (-7.5) over ST. LOUIS
Pittsburgh (-2.5) over MIAMI
NY Giants (+8.5) over MINNESOTA
Atlanta (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY
CAROLINA (-2.5) over New Orleans
New England (+7.5) over HOUSTON
DALLAS (-2.5) over Philadelphia
Green Bay (+3.5) over ARIZONA
SAN DIEGO (-4.5) over Washington
Tennessee (-4.5) over SEATTLE
Baltimore (-10.5) over OAKLAND
DENVER (-12.5) over Kansas City
NY JETS (-9.5) over Cincinnati

Three Best Bets: Chicago (-3.5), Atlanta (-2.5), Tennessee (-4.5)

Upset Delight: Jacksonville over Cleveland

Suicide Pool: Denver Broncos (Eliminated in Week 6 with Philadelphia, Week 8 with NY Jets, Week 9 with Green Bay & Week 11 with Cincinnati)

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 123-117
Best Bets: 22-26
Upset Delight: 9-11
Suicide Pool: 12-4

QB Shuffle: Week 16 Notes...

Week 16 is in the books. Here are my post-weekend notes:

THE CLUTCH:

Tied at 10 with 9:21 remaining from their own two yard line, Carson Palmer led the Bengals on a 98 yard touchdown, seven minute drive, to give the Bengals the 17-10 lead and eventual win. The drive was capped off by a six yard touchdown pass to Chad Ochocinco.

Tied at 17 with 2:25 remaining, Drew Brees drove the Saints 50 yards to get in position for the game-winning field goal. However, their kicker missed a 37 yard field goal, and the Saints ended up losing in overtime, 20-17.

In overtime, Josh Freeman ran for a key third down to keep Tampa Bay’s drive going, which ultimately led to a game-winning 47 yard field goal. However, Freeman did not attempt a pass on their final drive, and Cadillac Williams ran for 40 yards on 9 carries.

Tied at 27 with 1:41 left at Denver’s 42 yard line, Donovan McNabb drove the Eagles 30 yards, which set up a game-winning 28 yard David Akers field goal to give Philadelphia the 30-27 win over the Broncos.

Tied at 23, Jay Cutler threw a 20 yard touchdown pass to give the Bears a 30-23 late lead over Minnesota with just under 5 minutes to go. Then in overtime, Cutler threw a 39 yard strike to Aromashodu for the game-winning touchdown to win 36-30.

Down 30-23 with 4:55 remaining from their own 32 yard line, Brett Favre drove the Vikings 68 yards for a game-tying touchdown pass on fourth down to force overtime. However, Minnesota went on to lose in overtime 36-30.

THE non-CLUTCH:

Down 17-10 with 2:03 remaining, Matt Cassel threw an interception on the fourth play to lose the game for the Chiefs.

Down 23-20 with 5:25 remaining from Pittsburgh’s 49 yard line, Joe Flacco fumbled on a 4th and 10 to essentially lose the game. Baltimore did not get the ball back.

Did You Know:

Tony Romo's career record is 37-17 (69%)

Philip Rivers is 45-18 (71%) as a starter, and is 18-0 career in December!

Jason Campbell is 6-17 in his last 23 games.

Matt Cassel is now a career 13-16 with a 79.9 passer rating

Matt Moore has a 5-1 career record.

Charlie Frye is a career 7-15 with a 68.5 passer rating

Although he made appearances in only 3 games (1 start), Drew Stanton has 6 interceptions and 0 touchdown passes.

Matt Hasselbeck is 6-14 in the last two seasons.

HOMER REPORT

The Jets sit one win away from the playoffs. Although they beat the undefeated Colts essentially by forfeit, and have looked awful at times throughout the season, one could still put a very positive spin on the Jets situation.

The Jets are 8-7, but easily could be 11-4 right now. Remember, the Jets lost 5 games on the last possession. The Jets also own the #1 defense and running game. They also have a shut-down corner who can erase possible playoff opponents such as Chad Ochocinco or Reggie Wayne.

If the Jets got a few lucky breaks their way- they could be one of the NFL's elite teams.

Also, their playing a rookie quarterback who now has 14 starts under his belt, perhaps his career could take off in the playoffs? Also, factor in a potential rematch in the first round with the weakest division winner in the NFL (Cincinnati Bengals)- the Jets could really be a factor in the playoffs, and also next year!

Confidence Scale (out of 10): 9.0- I expect a victory over the Bengals back-ups, and I'm very excited about the possibility of playing Cincinnati in the 1st round as well.

FOURCADE FORMULA

Based on my Fourcade formula, here are the top 5 and bottom 5 quarterback performances from week 16.

BEST:

1) Tom Brady: 267 yards, 4 touchdowns
2) Jay Cutler: 273 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception + clutch performance
3) Kurt Warner: 313 yards, 2 touchdowns
4) Matt Ryan: 250 yards, 3 touchdowns

5) Philip Rivers: 264 yards, 2 touchdowns

WORST:

28) Matt Cassel: 180 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions + non-clutch performance
29) David Garrard: 185 yards, 2 interceptions

30) Keith Null: 171 yards, 1 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
31) Drew Stanton: 130 yards, 3 interceptions
32) Vince Young: 89 yards, 2 interceptions

Week 16 Picks...

Note: Home teams are in CAPS. All Lines courtesy of ESPN.com

San Diego (+2.5) over TENNESSEE

ATLANTA (-8.5) over Buffalo

Kansas City (+13.5) over CINCINNATI

Oakland (+3.5) over CLEVELAND

Seattle (+13.5) over GREEN BAY

PITTSBURGH (-2.5) over Baltimore

Houston (+3.5) over MIAMI

NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over Jacksonville

Tampa Bay (+14.5) over NEW ORLEANS

Carolina (+6.5) over NY GIANTS

ARIZONA (-13.5) over St. Louis

Detroit (+11.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Denver (+7.5) over PHILADELPHIA

NY Jets (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

WASHINGTON (+6.5) over Dallas

CHICAGO (+7.5) over Minnesota

Three Best Bets: Atlanta (-8.5), Pittsburgh (-2.5), Arizona (-13.5)

Upset Delight: NY Jets over Indianapolis

Suicide Pool: Arizona Cardinals (Eliminated in Week 6 with Philadelphia, Week 8 with NY Jets, Week 9 with Green Bay & Week 11 with Cincinnati)

Last Week: 6-10
Season: 111-113

Best Bets: 19-26

Upset Delight: 8-11

Suicide Pool: 11-4

QB Shuffle: Week 15 Notes...

Will Week 15 be remembered by Ben Roethlisberger's miracle last second touchdown pass to get Pittsburgh in the playoffs? Very reminiscent of Philip Rivers' Week 15 Game-winning drive last year against the Chiefs in the final minute, overcoming an 18 point deficit, and ultimately led the Chargers to the playoffs.

THE CLUTCH:

Up 24-17 with 8 minutes to go, Tony Romo led the Cowboys on a time-consuming 75 yard drive, which should have ended with the game-clinching field goal. However, Nick Folk missed a 24 yard field goal to give the Saints one more chance. However, the Cowboys still prevailed with the win, 24-17.

Tied at 24 with 3:48 to go, Kurt Warner drove the Cardinals 57 yards for an eventual game winning touchdown, to go up 31-24 with under 2 minutes to go.

Down 24-16 with 4:36 to go, Chad Henne drove the Dolphins 90 yards for a game-tying touchdown and two point conversion to eventually force overtime. Henne converted on a fourth and goal for the touchdown.

Down 34-27 with 4:26 to go, Matt Cassel drove the Chiefs 58 yards for a game-tying touchdown with 2:20 to go in the game. However, Cleveland scored a touchdown, leaving Cassel only 44 seconds to go 81 yards. Cassel drove Kansas City 56 yards for a failed Hail-Mary attempt for the loss.

Tied at 34 with 2:20 to go, Brady Quinn ran for 37 yards on a crucial 3rd down, which put Cleveland in position for the game winning score. Running back James Harrison then ran for 37 yards on the next three plays for the game winning touchdown run. Quinn however, played terribly, finishing with only 10 completions and 2 interceptions.

Tied at 13 with 8:07 remaining, Matt Schaub led the Texans 81 yards for the eventual game –winning field goal to defeat the Rams.

Down 7-3 with 4:27 remaining, Matt Ryan led the Falcons 57 yards for the eventual game-winning touchdown to win 10-7. Ryan’s game-winning touchdown pass came on a 4th and goal from the six yard line.

Down 19-13 with 3:29 remaining in the game, JaMarcus Russell drove the Raiders 75 yards for the improbable game-winning touchdown to beat the Broncos 20-19. Russell converted on a 4th and 10 to keep that drive alive.

Down 24-21 with 7:20 remaining, Carson Palmer led the Bengals 79 yards for the game-tying field goal with less than a minute left in regulation against the Chargers.

However, Philip Rivers drove the 46 yards in 54 seconds to set up a game-winning 52 yard field goal to beat the Bengals, 27-24.

Down 30-28 with 3:58 remaining in the game, Aaron Rodgers drove the Packers 39 yards, after an ill-advised onsides kick attempt, for a late lead changing touchdown to go up 36-30...

However, down 36-30 with 2:06 to go, from their own 14 yard line, Ben Roethlisberger drove the Steelers to an improbable game-winning touchdown, capped off with a touchdown pass as time-expired from the Packers 19 yard line. Roethlisberger also converted on a fourth down to keep the drive alive.

THE non-CLUTCH:

Down 35-31 with 2:06 remaining in the game, David Garrard drove the Jaguars down to the Colts 33 yard line. However, after missing a receiver badly on second down, Garrard then threw a game losing interception that could potentially end up costing Jacksonville the playoffs.

Down 24-17 with 2:16 remaining, Drew Brees got sacked and fumbled the ball away, which led the Saints first loss of the season.

Down 31-24 with 1:54 remaining in the game, Drew Stanton threw an incompletion on fourth down to lose the game for Detroit against Arizona.

In overtime, Chad Henne threw the game away with an interception in their own territory, which resulted in an game-winning Tennessee field goal, which killed Miami’s playoff hopes.

Down 16-13 with 4:36 to go, Keith Null took a bad sack on 3rd down, which forced the punt. St. Louis never got the ball back and lost.

Down 10-7 with 1:38 remaining, Mark Sanchez forced a bad interception, which cost the Jets the game, and probably the playoffs.

Did You Know:

Jay Cutler’s Chicago Bears are 5-9. Kyle Orton’s Denver Broncos are 8-5 when he starts.

The Tennessee Titans are 7-1 with Vince Young as a starter and 0-6 with Kerry Collins as a starter.

Vince Young is now 25-12 for his career.

Philip Rivers is 44-18 as a starter, and is 17-0 career in December!

Jason Campbell is 6-16 in his last 22 games.

Through his first two seasons, Brady Quinn is 3-9 with a 66.8 passer rating.

Matt Cassel is now a career 13-15 with a 80.7 passer rating

Daunte Culpepper is a career 41-58 (5-21 since 2005) and has lost his last nine starts.

Matt Moore has a 4-1 career record.

HOMER REPORT

The Jets' crushing loss against the Falcons, was the fourth time that their "#1 defense" gave up the game-losing score on the final possession. Perhaps the #1" tag is a bit overrated?

The Jets need to win out and hope for help (Denver, Jacksonville and Miami each have to lose once). However, the Jets need to ruin the Colts' perfect season to make that possible. Certainly a tall order.

Confidence Scale (out of 10): 6.0- I'm confident the Jets will get help from the other games, but beating the Colts is alot to ask for.

FOURCADE FORMULA

Based on my Fourcade formula, here are the top 5 and bottom 5 quarterback performances from week 15.

BEST:

1) Ben Roethlisberger: 503 yards, 3 touchdowns + clutch performance
2) Peyton Manning: 308 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception
3) Matt Moore: 299 yards, 3 touchdowns
4) Joe Flacco: 234 yards, 4 touchdowns
5) Eli Manning: 268 yards, 3 touchdowns

WORST:

28) Mark Sanchez: 226 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions + non-clutch performance
29) Matt Hasselbeck: 256 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 interceptions
30) Alex Smith: 177 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions
31) Daunte Culpepper: 64 yards, 1 interception + injured
32) Jay Cutler: 94 yards, 3 interceptions