Monday, August 24, 2009

Don't Shoot the Messenger: 2009 Miami Dolphins Edition

The Miami Dolphins improved from 1-15 in 2007 to a playoff bound 11-5 record in 2008. A record 10 game swing! However, for Dolphins fans, I feel obligated to bear some bad news on why you should brace yourself for a non-playoff Dolphins season.

1) The Dolphins schedule strength last year was extremely favorable. Since the AFC East got to play both the lowly AFC West and NFC West, Miami’s opponents went a combined 118-138 (46%) in 2008. This year, the AFC East is slated to play both the AFC South and NFC South. For comparisons sake, the Miami Dolphins 2009 opponents went a combined 152-104 (59%) in 2008!

2) On top of the Dolphins implementing the trendy wild-cat offense (which has now spread across the league like the common cold), Miami was extremely successful in close-games with their easy record. You can argue that Miami had an overload of good karma, finishing 7-2 in games decided by 7 points or less. However, you could also argue (including me), that Miami did so well in close games because of their quarterback upgrade of Chad Pennington (from the 2008 combo of Cleo Lemon, John Beck, and Trent Green). However, as a Jets fan who has known Pennington since 2000 - comes my third and biggest red flag.

3) Before 2008, Chad Pennington has made the playoffs three times. In all three post-playoff years, Pennington has either played poorly, gotten injured, or all the above, going a combined 6-14 in those years. Pennington has proven he can’t put together two consecutive good seasons...and wouldn't you know, Pennington is coming off a great season.

So for Betting reasons - Do not take the Dolphins 15-1 to win the Conference or 11-2 to win the division. Also, take the under for wins at 8.0.

However, if there were odds that back-up Chad Henne will start some games this year for Miami, I would take those odds.

3 comments:

  1. Dolphins will get a good draft pick next year!

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  2. Reply to Greg: At the very least a top 20 pick.

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  3. Dolphins Number 1 Weakness: the Wildcat Offense

    Everyone will try to replicate the Ravens tactics from that playoff game last year.

    Also, New England is much better this year!

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