Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Forecasting Eventual Pink Slips: UPDATE Starring Jeff Fisher

Although I called out Jeff Fisher out back in an August 26th column, insisting he was making the wrong move by bringing back Kerry Collins, in favor of throwing their “franchise” quarterback, Vince Young, under the bus, Fisher is insisting on Kerry Collins remaining their starter, despite a 0-5 start.

Am I surprised at the Titans 0-5 start? Nope- not at all.

As I mentioned many times before, Kerry Collins’ career record is now 79-90 (47%). He is also currently 17-30 (36%) in the year after he makes the playoffs.

Kerry Collins is not only a 36 year old- former alcoholic, but he is also a very unreliable/bad quarterback. And yes, Jeff Fisher decided that this was enough to throw Vince Young under the bus for and risk their season, despite Young’s career record being 18-11, and Young being three years removed from winning rookie of the year.

So with the Titans ultimately going to miss the playoffs this year, this will mark Fisher’s 9th time his team will miss the playoffs out of 15 full seasons.

So as I predicted in my September 1st column, “Forecasting Eventual Pink Slips” it has become obvious that it is time for Jeff Fisher to be finally fired at the end of this season.

As much as the media would like to overrate Fisher, it would not be out of the ordinary for his termination, looking at some other coaches who have been fired recently. Let’s compare:

The following are four high-profiled coaches who have been fired within the past 4 years:

Marty Shottenheimer: 20 full years of coaching: 200-126-1 career record
13 playoffs, 5-13 in playoffs
11 years of 10+ wins, 9.786 wins per 16 games.

Mike Shanahan: 15 full years of coaching: 146-98 career record
7 playoffs, 8-5 in playoffs
7 years of 10+ wins, 9.574 wins per 16 games

Jon Gruden: 11 full years of coaching: 95-81 career record
5 playoffs, 5-4 in playoffs
4 years of 10+ wins, 8.636 wins per 16 games

Brian Billick: 9 full years of coaching: 80-64 career record
4 playoffs, 5-3 in playoffs
4 years of 10+ wins, 8.889 wins per 16 games

All of these coaches have made the playoffs more often than Fisher, and three of the four (Gruden’s is slightly lower) have a higher wins per 16 games average. Also, Shanahan, Gruden, and Billick all have Super Bowl rings, Fisher does not.

So yes, it would be legit in the current NFL climate that Fisher's time is up as a head coach at this moment.

Let's even compare Fisher to two current coaches on the hot seat:

Wade Phillips: 7 full years of coaching*: 73-51 (current career record)
4 playoffs, 0-4 in playoffs
3 years of 10+ wins, 9.419 wins per 16 games

John Fox: 7 full years of coaching*: 64-52 (current career record)
3 playoffs, 5-3 in playoffs
3 years of 10+ wins, 8.828 wins per 16 games

Jeff Fisher
: 14 full years of coaching*: 128-107 (current career record)
6 playoffs, 5-6 in playoffs
6 years of 10+ wins, 8.7149 wins per 16 games

Note: * full years of coaching is not including this season.

Both Phillips and Fox have a better winning percentage, and make the playoffs more often than Fisher. However, both Fox and Phillips are currently more discussed as potential terminations at years' end than Fisher. My question is...why?

So as we watch the Titans play out the remaining season, every time Kerry Collins makes a “Kerry Collins”-type mistake, or every time there’s a camera shot of Vince Young losing confidence by the minute- remember that Jeff Fisher has created this mess.

If I were Tennessee’s management, I would try to shake things up, and fire Fisher at the end of the season, and hire a young prodigy, much like what Denver did with Josh McDaniels. Tennessee needs a fresh start, and should probably draft a new franchise quarterback as well, since Fisher killed the career of their current one.

Titans’ fans: 15 years - 9 of them missing the playoffs. And I haven't even gotten into Fisher's recent playoff woes and conservative nature.

It’s time for everyone to come to terms and admit that Jeff Fisher may not be as good of a coach that the media leads us to believe.

2 comments:

  1. What about Eric Mangini? The Browns have gone terrible to last place Mid American Conference level of football.

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  2. Response to Anonymous:

    Wait until Brett Ratliff plays until you proclaim Mangini as toast.

    If Ratliff wins and has upside- Mangini is credited for finding him, and all that other stuff doesn't matter when you win.

    Also- Mangini didn't draft Quinn or Anderson. If he could get say 5 wins out of Cleveland- maybe he should come back as long as they start over at quarterback (2010 is qb heavy draft).

    Remember- Teams with good qbs can win despite having a questionable coach.

    In Fisher's case- he created the mess in Tennessee.

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