Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Does Aaron Rodgers Secretly Stink? All Signs Point to Yes...

When will the media re-evaluate their affection for Aaron Rodgers?

The common misconception is that it’s not Aaron Rodgers’ fault for all of the sacks that he has taken, and instead it is merely the result of a poor offensive line. In fact, in an October CBS Sportsline poll, 66% of people agreed with this very notion.

My counter to that? You’re not watching the games! For anyone who has followed Rodgers’ career closely, it is clear that Rodgers has a fundamental flaw of slow decision making which leads to drive-killing sacks. Sadly, this is a sign of a bad quarterback.

Obviously Rodgers’ supporters would simply point out reasons why Rodgers is a budding superstar, citing his dazzling statistics while playing in the shadow of Packers’ legend Brett Favre. I can’t deny the fact that he indeed puts up great stats, and would be a very good fantasy quarterback.

However, if you look closely, a lot of Rodgers’ great statistics come in situations in which Rodgers can buff his stats when his team is either blowing out a bad team, or playing catch-up vs. a good team in garbage time. In fact, 8 of Rodgers’ 10 career wins were decided by 10 points or more (blow-outs) vs. an opponent’s combined record of 28-78 (26%)! Naturally, Rodgers feasted on these bad teams with great statistics (70% completion, 266.25 ypg, 18 touchdowns vs. 2 interceptions, 120.1 passer rating). In his 16 other starts vs. opponents with a combined record of 119-87, Rodgers’ statistics are much more down to earth (60% completion, 260.19 ypg, 26 touchdowns vs. 16 interceptions, 87.1 passer rating), with his record, 2-14 in those games, being awful.

Also, in games decided by 7 points of less, Rodgers has a career 2-9 record, with a 0-5 record in games decided by 3 points or less. This is a clear statistic indicating that Rodgers isn’t very “clutch,” which adds to the fact that he doesn’t beat good teams. However, this might be the least of his worries…

The issue of any team’s offensive line is that its perception is directly correlated with the success of the offense. However, even if you have a shaky offensive line, your offense can still thrive as long as you have a good quarterback. Look at last year’s Super Bowl champions! When a team has a superior quarterback, every weakness is hidden because the media is distracted by the success that a quarterback is generating. Aaron Rodgers, not Green Bay’s offensive line, is responsible for leading the league in sacks allowed.

Aaron Rodgers has the same qualities that derailed the careers of bust-quarterbacks like Rob Johnson or David Carr, which is slow decision making, and the tendency to hold on to the ball too long.

Facts are facts: Aaron Rodgers is a career 10-14. Under the same coach, Brett Favre went 21-11 In his 24 starts, Rodgers has taken 71 sacks (2.96 per game), including 37 so far this year (4.63 per game!). For comparisons sake- under Mike McCarthy, Brett Favre took a total of 36 sacks total in two years. Favre took one sack every 31.8 pass attempts in that span, compared to Rodgers’ career average of one sack every 10.7 pass attempts. That means Rodgers takes three times the amount of sacks that Favre would take, with essentially the same offensive line and system.

So what I’m suggesting is that the media should officially stop considering Rodgers a top tier NFL quarterback- at least until he wipes all that super glue off his hands!

In the meantime, I will officially refer to Rodgers as “Stop, Drop & Roll.”

5 comments:

  1. I don't like comparing Rodgers under McCarthy with Favre under McCarthy. Two completely different quarterbacks and two completely different stages of their career. If you look at the stats from that point in their respective careers, it still comes out a little in favor of Favre (at least in terms of record, not sure about sacks), but then again we're talking about one of the best quarterbacks of all time. Rodgers is 25 years old playing with a young, undisciplined (and in my opinion, poor coached) team. As a Packer fan, Rodgers is the least of my worries.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Favre before 25 years old comparison:

    Favre:26-19 (not including 2 playoff wins)

    games decided by 7pts or less: 13-8 (15-8 including playoffs).

    One sack per 24.29 pass attempts.

    Favre still leaps and yards beyond Rodgers back then(especially in close games!).

    ReplyDelete
  3. -5 in games that are 3 points or less:

    Game 1: 2008 Atlanta: Packers were already down and scored 14 points in the 4th quarter. Didn’t recover onside kick and lost.

    Game 2: 2008 Tennessee: Rodgers got team in FG range. Made the FG, went into OT. Packers lost toss and defense gave up FG to Tennessee.

    Game 3: 2008 Minnesota: Packers had a 27-21 lead and A. Peterson had a 39-YD TD with less than 2 mins. Rodgers got team into FG range, missed kick by Mason Crosby.

    Game 4: 2008 Houston: Game was tied with 2 mins left and the defense gave up a FG.

    Game 5: 2008 Chicago: Game went into OT and the Packers never got a shot.

    Which of these losses tell you that he isn’t “clutch?” His defense gave up all of those games. They now have a new D-coordinator and have statistically the best defense in the NFL.

    By the way since you wrote this blog Aaron Rodgers career record is now actually 14-14.

    ReplyDelete
  4. This article and it's main assertion is absurd! Clearly you do not watch Packer games--this is obvious. Aaron will be a superstar; it is a consensus among NFL experts for a reason -- because he is a tremendous player

    ReplyDelete
  5. This author is a complete idiot for even going that far to bash a guy who was already well above the curve 1 1/2 years into his career as a starter and only due to get better. Fast forward to 2012 and ask yourself: with a 48-25 record, 65% comp, obsurd 104 career qb rating, 2 pro bowls, league mvp, and a ring in only 4 1/2 yrs... is he still overated? kill yourself, moron

    ReplyDelete