Thursday, December 31, 2009

Week 17 Picks...

Note: Home teams are in CAPS. All Lines courtesy of ESPN.com

BUFFALO (+2.5) over Indianapolis
Jacksonville (+1.5) over CLEVELAND
Chicago (-3.5) over DETROIT
San Francisco (-7.5) over ST. LOUIS
Pittsburgh (-2.5) over MIAMI
NY Giants (+8.5) over MINNESOTA
Atlanta (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY
CAROLINA (-2.5) over New Orleans
New England (+7.5) over HOUSTON
DALLAS (-2.5) over Philadelphia
Green Bay (+3.5) over ARIZONA
SAN DIEGO (-4.5) over Washington
Tennessee (-4.5) over SEATTLE
Baltimore (-10.5) over OAKLAND
DENVER (-12.5) over Kansas City
NY JETS (-9.5) over Cincinnati

Three Best Bets: Chicago (-3.5), Atlanta (-2.5), Tennessee (-4.5)

Upset Delight: Jacksonville over Cleveland

Suicide Pool: Denver Broncos (Eliminated in Week 6 with Philadelphia, Week 8 with NY Jets, Week 9 with Green Bay & Week 11 with Cincinnati)

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 123-117
Best Bets: 22-26
Upset Delight: 9-11
Suicide Pool: 12-4

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

QB Shuffle: Week 16 Notes...

Week 16 is in the books. Here are my post-weekend notes:

THE CLUTCH:

Tied at 10 with 9:21 remaining from their own two yard line, Carson Palmer led the Bengals on a 98 yard touchdown, seven minute drive, to give the Bengals the 17-10 lead and eventual win. The drive was capped off by a six yard touchdown pass to Chad Ochocinco.

Tied at 17 with 2:25 remaining, Drew Brees drove the Saints 50 yards to get in position for the game-winning field goal. However, their kicker missed a 37 yard field goal, and the Saints ended up losing in overtime, 20-17.

In overtime, Josh Freeman ran for a key third down to keep Tampa Bay’s drive going, which ultimately led to a game-winning 47 yard field goal. However, Freeman did not attempt a pass on their final drive, and Cadillac Williams ran for 40 yards on 9 carries.

Tied at 27 with 1:41 left at Denver’s 42 yard line, Donovan McNabb drove the Eagles 30 yards, which set up a game-winning 28 yard David Akers field goal to give Philadelphia the 30-27 win over the Broncos.

Tied at 23, Jay Cutler threw a 20 yard touchdown pass to give the Bears a 30-23 late lead over Minnesota with just under 5 minutes to go. Then in overtime, Cutler threw a 39 yard strike to Aromashodu for the game-winning touchdown to win 36-30.

Down 30-23 with 4:55 remaining from their own 32 yard line, Brett Favre drove the Vikings 68 yards for a game-tying touchdown pass on fourth down to force overtime. However, Minnesota went on to lose in overtime 36-30.

THE non-CLUTCH:

Down 17-10 with 2:03 remaining, Matt Cassel threw an interception on the fourth play to lose the game for the Chiefs.

Down 23-20 with 5:25 remaining from Pittsburgh’s 49 yard line, Joe Flacco fumbled on a 4th and 10 to essentially lose the game. Baltimore did not get the ball back.

Did You Know:

Tony Romo's career record is 37-17 (69%)

Philip Rivers is 45-18 (71%) as a starter, and is 18-0 career in December!

Jason Campbell is 6-17 in his last 23 games.

Matt Cassel is now a career 13-16 with a 79.9 passer rating

Matt Moore has a 5-1 career record.

Charlie Frye is a career 7-15 with a 68.5 passer rating

Although he made appearances in only 3 games (1 start), Drew Stanton has 6 interceptions and 0 touchdown passes.

Matt Hasselbeck is 6-14 in the last two seasons.

HOMER REPORT

The Jets sit one win away from the playoffs. Although they beat the undefeated Colts essentially by forfeit, and have looked awful at times throughout the season, one could still put a very positive spin on the Jets situation.

The Jets are 8-7, but easily could be 11-4 right now. Remember, the Jets lost 5 games on the last possession. The Jets also own the #1 defense and running game. They also have a shut-down corner who can erase possible playoff opponents such as Chad Ochocinco or Reggie Wayne.

If the Jets got a few lucky breaks their way- they could be one of the NFL's elite teams.

Also, their playing a rookie quarterback who now has 14 starts under his belt, perhaps his career could take off in the playoffs? Also, factor in a potential rematch in the first round with the weakest division winner in the NFL (Cincinnati Bengals)- the Jets could really be a factor in the playoffs, and also next year!

Confidence Scale (out of 10): 9.0- I expect a victory over the Bengals back-ups, and I'm very excited about the possibility of playing Cincinnati in the 1st round as well.

FOURCADE FORMULA

Based on my Fourcade formula, here are the top 5 and bottom 5 quarterback performances from week 16.

BEST:

1) Tom Brady: 267 yards, 4 touchdowns
2) Jay Cutler: 273 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception + clutch performance
3) Kurt Warner: 313 yards, 2 touchdowns
4) Matt Ryan: 250 yards, 3 touchdowns
5) Philip Rivers: 264 yards, 2 touchdowns

WORST:

28) Matt Cassel: 180 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions + non-clutch performance
29) David Garrard: 185 yards, 2 interceptions
30) Keith Null: 171 yards, 1 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
31) Drew Stanton: 130 yards, 3 interceptions
32) Vince Young: 89 yards, 2 interceptions

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Week 16 Picks...

Note: Home teams are in CAPS. All Lines courtesy of ESPN.com

San Diego (+2.5) over TENNESSEE
ATLANTA (-8.5) over Buffalo
Kansas City (+13.5) over CINCINNATI
Oakland (+3.5) over CLEVELAND
Seattle (+13.5) over GREEN BAY
PITTSBURGH (-2.5) over Baltimore
Houston (+3.5) over MIAMI
NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over Jacksonville
Tampa Bay (+14.5) over NEW ORLEANS
Carolina (+6.5) over NY GIANTS
ARIZONA (-13.5) over St. Louis
Detroit (+11.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Denver (+7.5) over PHILADELPHIA
NY Jets (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
WASHINGTON (+6.5) over Dallas
CHICAGO (+7.5) over Minnesota

Three Best Bets: Atlanta (-8.5), Pittsburgh (-2.5), Arizona (-13.5)

Upset Delight: NY Jets over Indianapolis

Suicide Pool: Arizona Cardinals (Eliminated in Week 6 with Philadelphia, Week 8 with NY Jets, Week 9 with Green Bay & Week 11 with Cincinnati)

Last Week: 6-10
Season: 111-113
Best Bets: 19-26
Upset Delight: 8-11
Suicide Pool: 11-4

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

QB Shuffle: Week 15 Notes...

Will Week 15 be remembered by Ben Roethlisberger's miracle last second touchdown pass to get Pittsburgh in the playoffs? Very reminiscent of Philip Rivers' Week 15 Game-winning drive last year against the Chiefs in the final minute, overcoming an 18 point deficit, and ultimately led the Chargers to the playoffs.

THE CLUTCH:

Up 24-17 with 8 minutes to go, Tony Romo led the Cowboys on a time-consuming 75 yard drive, which should have ended with the game-clinching field goal. However, Nick Folk missed a 24 yard field goal to give the Saints one more chance. However, the Cowboys still prevailed with the win, 24-17.

Tied at 24 with 3:48 to go, Kurt Warner drove the Cardinals 57 yards for an eventual game winning touchdown, to go up 31-24 with under 2 minutes to go.

Down 24-16 with 4:36 to go, Chad Henne drove the Dolphins 90 yards for a game-tying touchdown and two point conversion to eventually force overtime. Henne converted on a fourth and goal for the touchdown.

Down 34-27 with 4:26 to go, Matt Cassel drove the Chiefs 58 yards for a game-tying touchdown with 2:20 to go in the game. However, Cleveland scored a touchdown, leaving Cassel only 44 seconds to go 81 yards. Cassel drove Kansas City 56 yards for a failed Hail-Mary attempt for the loss.

Tied at 34 with 2:20 to go, Brady Quinn ran for 37 yards on a crucial 3rd down, which put Cleveland in position for the game winning score. Running back James Harrison then ran for 37 yards on the next three plays for the game winning touchdown run. Quinn however, played terribly, finishing with only 10 completions and 2 interceptions.

Tied at 13 with 8:07 remaining, Matt Schaub led the Texans 81 yards for the eventual game –winning field goal to defeat the Rams.

Down 7-3 with 4:27 remaining, Matt Ryan led the Falcons 57 yards for the eventual game-winning touchdown to win 10-7. Ryan’s game-winning touchdown pass came on a 4th and goal from the six yard line.

Down 19-13 with 3:29 remaining in the game, JaMarcus Russell drove the Raiders 75 yards for the improbable game-winning touchdown to beat the Broncos 20-19. Russell converted on a 4th and 10 to keep that drive alive.

Down 24-21 with 7:20 remaining, Carson Palmer led the Bengals 79 yards for the game-tying field goal with less than a minute left in regulation against the Chargers.

However, Philip Rivers drove the 46 yards in 54 seconds to set up a game-winning 52 yard field goal to beat the Bengals, 27-24.

Down 30-28 with 3:58 remaining in the game, Aaron Rodgers drove the Packers 39 yards, after an ill-advised onsides kick attempt, for a late lead changing touchdown to go up 36-30...

However, down 36-30 with 2:06 to go, from their own 14 yard line, Ben Roethlisberger drove the Steelers to an improbable game-winning touchdown, capped off with a touchdown pass as time-expired from the Packers 19 yard line. Roethlisberger also converted on a fourth down to keep the drive alive.

THE non-CLUTCH:

Down 35-31 with 2:06 remaining in the game, David Garrard drove the Jaguars down to the Colts 33 yard line. However, after missing a receiver badly on second down, Garrard then threw a game losing interception that could potentially end up costing Jacksonville the playoffs.

Down 24-17 with 2:16 remaining, Drew Brees got sacked and fumbled the ball away, which led the Saints first loss of the season.

Down 31-24 with 1:54 remaining in the game, Drew Stanton threw an incompletion on fourth down to lose the game for Detroit against Arizona.

In overtime, Chad Henne threw the game away with an interception in their own territory, which resulted in an game-winning Tennessee field goal, which killed Miami’s playoff hopes.

Down 16-13 with 4:36 to go, Keith Null took a bad sack on 3rd down, which forced the punt. St. Louis never got the ball back and lost.

Down 10-7 with 1:38 remaining, Mark Sanchez forced a bad interception, which cost the Jets the game, and probably the playoffs.

Did You Know:

Jay Cutler’s Chicago Bears are 5-9. Kyle Orton’s Denver Broncos are 8-5 when he starts.

The Tennessee Titans are 7-1 with Vince Young as a starter and 0-6 with Kerry Collins as a starter.

Vince Young is now 25-12 for his career.

Philip Rivers is 44-18 as a starter, and is 17-0 career in December!

Jason Campbell is 6-16 in his last 22 games.

Through his first two seasons, Brady Quinn is 3-9 with a 66.8 passer rating.

Matt Cassel is now a career 13-15 with a 80.7 passer rating

Daunte Culpepper is a career 41-58 (5-21 since 2005) and has lost his last nine starts.

Matt Moore has a 4-1 career record.

HOMER REPORT

The Jets' crushing loss against the Falcons, was the fourth time that their "#1 defense" gave up the game-losing score on the final possession. Perhaps the #1" tag is a bit overrated?

The Jets need to win out and hope for help (Denver, Jacksonville and Miami each have to lose once). However, the Jets need to ruin the Colts' perfect season to make that possible. Certainly a tall order.

Confidence Scale (out of 10): 6.0- I'm confident the Jets will get help from the other games, but beating the Colts is alot to ask for.

FOURCADE FORMULA

Based on my Fourcade formula, here are the top 5 and bottom 5 quarterback performances from week 15.

BEST:

1) Ben Roethlisberger: 503 yards, 3 touchdowns + clutch performance
2) Peyton Manning: 308 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception
3) Matt Moore: 299 yards, 3 touchdowns
4) Joe Flacco: 234 yards, 4 touchdowns
5) Eli Manning: 268 yards, 3 touchdowns

WORST:

28) Mark Sanchez: 226 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions + non-clutch performance
29) Matt Hasselbeck: 256 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 interceptions
30) Alex Smith: 177 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions
31) Daunte Culpepper: 64 yards, 1 interception + injured
32) Jay Cutler: 94 yards, 3 interceptions

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Week 15 Picks...

Note: Home teams are in CAPS. All Lines courtesy of ESPN.com

Indianapolis (-6.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Dallas (+7.5) over NEW ORLEANS
New England (-7.5) over BUFFALO
Arizona (-10.5) over DETROIT
TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Miami
KANSAS CITY (-2.5) over Cleveland
Houston (-9.5) over ST. LOUIS
NY JETS (-6.5) over Atlanta
PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) over San Francisco
Chicago (+10.5) over BALTIMORE
SAN DIEGO (-6.5) over Cincinnati
DENVER (-13.5) over Oakland
PITTSBURGH (-0.5) over Green Bay
SEATTLE (-7.5) over Tampa Bay
CAROLINA (+7.5) over Minnesota
NY Giants (-3.5) over WASHINGTON

Three Best Bets: Arizona (-10.5), Houston (-9.5), Pittsburgh (-0.5)

Upset Delight: none

Suicide Pool: Houston Texans (Eliminated in Week 6 with Philadelphia, Week 8 with NY Jets, Week 9 with Green Bay & Week 11 with Cincinnati)

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 104-103
Best Bets: 18-24
Upset Delight: 8-11
Suicide Pool: 10-4

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

QB Shuffle: Week 14 Notes...

Week 14 is in the books. Here are my post-weekend notes:

THE CLUTCH:

Up 21-16 with 9:44 remaining, Peyton Manning orchestrated an 80 yard drive, which elapsed over 7 minutes, capped off by a 1 yard touchdown pass to Dallas Clark, to ice the game for the Colts, and win 28-16.

Up 17-10 with 9:13 remaining, Philip Rivers led the Chargers on a 73 yard drive that took over seven minutes, which resulted in a 34 yard field goal by Nate Keading, to go up 10 points with less than 2 minutes to go to ice the game over Dallas.

THE non-CLUTCH:

Down 13-6 with 6:16 left, from their own 21 yard line, Ben Roethlisberger threw an incompletion on a fourth down with less than two minutes to play, to lose the Cleveland Browns, which could prove costly to the Steelers playoff hopes.

Down 26-23 with under two minutes remaining, Chris Redman failed to convert on a fourth and short at the Saints 46 yard line, to lose to the Saints, crushing Atlanta’s playoff hopes.

Down 21-14 with 2:07 remaining from their own 9 yard line, Jay Cutler took a bad sack, and then threw an incompletion on fourth down to lose to the Packers.

Down 16-10 with 3rd and 10 on the Bills 21 yard line, Matt Cassel threw an incompletion and an interception, leaving on 2:11 remaining on the clock. Cassel got another opportunity, but his hail mary attempt ended with his fourth interception of the game for the loss.

Down 14-10 with 3:30 remaining, from their own 31 yard line, David Garrard failed to convert on a fourth and three with a quarterback draw, which cost the Jaguars the loss to the Dolphins.

Did You Know:

Jay Cutler’s Chicago Bears are 5-8. Kyle Orton’s Denver Broncos are 8-4 when he starts.

The Tennessee Titans are 6-1 with Vince Young as a starter and 0-6 with Kerry Collins as a starter.

Tony Romo is 35-17 as a starter, but 5-10 playing in December

Philip Rivers is 43-18 as a starter and is 16-0 playing in December.

Matt Cassel is a career 13-14 with a 79.9 passer rating.

Daunte Culpepper is a career 41-57 (5-20 since 2005) and has lost his last eight starts.

HOMER REPORT

Everything has fallen into place for the Jets. They survived a start by Kellen Clemens, and three of the contending teams for the wildcard lost (Denver, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh). Now the Jets need to win out (might happen, right?) and hope Baltimore, Miami, and Jacksonville each lose one more time (sorta likely).

Confidence Scale (out of 10): 7.5- At home, in a must win game, playing a reeling team without its starting quarterback and running back (Matt Ryan and Michael Turner)? Sounds good to me!

FOURCADE FORMULA

Based on my Fourcade formula, here are the top 5 and bottom 5 quarterback performances from week 14.

BEST:

1) Drew Brees: 296 yards, 3 touchdowns
2) Matt Schaub: 365 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception
3) Donovan McNabb: 275 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception
4) Jason Campbell: 222 yards, 2 touchdowns
5) Joe Flacco: 230 yards, 1 touchdown

WORST:

28) Kurt Warner: 139 yards, 2 interceptions
29) Daunte Culpepper: 135 yards, 2 interceptions
30) Matt Cassel: 224 yards, 4 interceptions + non-clutch performance
31) Keith Null: 157 yards, 1 touchdown, 5 interceptions
32) Josh Freeman: 93 yards, 3 interceptions

Thursday, December 10, 2009

How to Fix College Football: BCS Playoffs

With college football bowl season beginning in two weeks, football fans will be treated to 34 different bowl games.

However, what if I told you that only one of those 34 games will have any "real" stakes or meaning to an average viewer? Also, what if I told you that the championship game will be played between two undefeated teams based on a selection system, rather than a playoff system, while three other undefeated teams are left out, not getting the chance to play for a championship.

Sounds like a crappy system, right?

So as the 2009 season comes to end, teams and fans are wondering why Division 1 College Football is so resistant of a playoff system. It seems so logical- giving the fans better games, and more money to be made all around.

Maybe there just hasn’t been a solid proposal yet? If so- let me try to step in, and give my proposal on how to fix college football.

Playoffs: 8 teams, 3 rounds (1 vs. 8, 4 vs. 5, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6 format)

Selection: There are currently six (6) BSC conferences, which include the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), Big 12 Conference, Big East Conference, Big Ten Conference, Pacific Ten (Pac 10) Conference, and the Southeastern (SEC) Conference.

…well how about the winners of each conference’s title game, automatically gets a spot in the playoffs. However, there is a catch. That team must have a Top 10 BCS ranking. So if Nebraska had beaten Texas this past Saturday, the Big 12 would have been out of luck, unless Texas would still be eligible for a wild-card spot.

The remaining two (or possibly more) playoff “wild-card” spots would then be determined by the highest ranking non-conference winners determined by the BCS rankings. A wild-card from a BCS conference would automatically be put on the other side of the bracket as their conference winner.

When would this be played? The first round would take place around Christmas. I’m thinking either a December 24-December 25th situation (2 games a day), or an all-day football day on either Christmas or the day after (December 26th). Wouldn’t it be great to have four playoff games all played on the same day? A tradition would be born...

The second round games would be played on New Years Day, with one game at 4pm, the other at 8pm primetime.

The BCS Championship game would then take place one week later on January 8th (this year’s game is on January 7th).

Simple right?

Let’s see how this year’s playoffs would play out.

BSC Conference winners would all be eligible for the playoffs, which would fill out the first six seeds like this:
1) Alabama, 2) Texas, 3) Cincinnati, 4) Oregon, 5) Ohio State 6) Georgia Tech.

The highest ranking remaining non-BCS conference winners and wild-cards would be TCU and Florida.

Yes, undefeated Boise State get’s “screwed” here, but at least they could have known exactly what needed to have happened for them to make the playoffs. In Boise State’s case, if either Oregon, Georgia Tech, Texas, Cincinnati lost this past Saturday, Boise State would have qualified in this system.

So here’s how the playoffs would look and tell me this doesn’t look awesome:
1st round: (1) Alabama vs. (8) TCU, (4) Oregon vs. (5) Ohio State, (2) Texas vs. (7) Florida, (3) Cincinnati vs. (6) Georgia Tech

Sounds good, right? Let’s answer some other questions regarding the system.

What about the other bowls? You can still have all the bowls you want, but they would essentially be like the NIT. Currently, any bowl other than Championship Game is like the NIT anyways. “Yes, we won the Texas Bowl, we might be ranked #24 now!”

What about traditions, like the Rose Bowl? Prestigious bowls like the Rose Bowl would have dibs for the playoffs. For example, the 4pm January 1st second round game could be the Rose Bowl, and so forth. Advertisers would essentially have a bidding war. Get ready for “The Chipotle 1st round Bowl”!

OR you could simply revolve 1st round game sites based on conference. For example, the Sugar Bowl is SEC-based, so you could either have the above Alabama or Florida 1st round game at the Sugar Bowl (in this case Alabama vs. TCU). Same goes for the Rose Bowl (Pac 10) with the Oregon vs. Ohio State game, the Orange Bowl (ACC) with Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech, and the Fiesta Bowl (Big 12) with Texas vs. Florida.

Also the proposed dates aren’t totally set. The first round could always start on January 1st (for traditions sake), and end on January 15th (only one more week).

Would this system make the regular season shorter? No, it would be exactly the same length, giving school’s maximum opportunity for profit. However, for playoff teams, there would be opportunity for two more games, and essentially more money.

I would only suggest that every BCS conference would play a conference championship game. However, it’s not a big deal if the Big 10 and Pac 10 still didn’t abide.

Playing three weeks in a row and on holidays, that’s too much for college kids!
Yea, we wouldn’t want them to be prepared for a career in professional football, would we? Bowl games are currently scheduled on Christmas Eve, New Years eve, and New Years day, so what would be the difference?

How will this make money? Hello! Right now, there’s 5 BCS Championship Series games. In this playoff format, there would be 7 games (two more games), with all being drastically more important. More money for advertising, schools…pretty much everybody. Plus- it makes regular season games more important as well, with conference and BSC positioning. Essentially, teams who lose a game would have more to play for.

This would benefit professional football: Wouldn’t you feel better about drafting Colt McCoy, or a Tony Pike if you saw him playing in an actual playoff setting? This would be a great indicator to see how players can handle adversity, and the spotlight.

Let’s take the All-State Sugar Bowl between Cincinnati and Florida. Essentially, the winner of this game gets to be the #2 or #3 team in the country. Does it really matter if your team is #3 or #13? You didn't win the championship in both cases, so what's the difference? However, playing well in the college football playoffs would be a lot more pressure on schools and players. Tony Pike playing well in the playoffs is infinitly more impressive than Pike playing well in the now- Sugar Bowl.

This system would also make the conference championship games much more interesting. Let’s go over some hypothetical’s from this year.

What if Georgia Tech lost? Boise State would be the third wild-card

What if Texas had lost? If Texas didn’t fall below Boise State in the BCS Rankings, they might still be in the playoffs. Nebraska would still be on the outside looking in.

What if Cincinnati lost? Pittsburgh would then possibly be in the top 10 BCS Rankings, and they would qualify. Imagine the Cincinnati comeback resulted in a dramatic playoff berth?

What if Oregon lost? Oregon would be out, Oregon State would have outside shot of taking Oregon’s place.

After Boise State, next in line for the wild-card would be Iowa, and so forth (did I hear “bubble teams”?).

This playoff system could rival College Basketball’s March Madness: Going in the later weeks, there would be “bubble teams,” bracketology, and of course, a selection show.

This past Saturday’s college football games were pretty dramatic, but imagine if playoff stakes and championship dreams were on the line?

This is how college football should be!

Done and Done.

Week 14 Picks...

Note: Home teams are in CAPS. All Lines courtesy of ESPN.com

Pittsburgh (-9.5) over CLEVELAND
New Orleans (-9.5) over ATLANTA
Green Bay (-3.5) over CHICAGO
Denver (+7.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
KANSAS CITY (-0.5) over Buffalo
NY Jets (-3.5) over TAMPA BAY
Miami (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE
BALTIMORE (-13.5) over Detroit
Seattle (+6.5) over HOUSTON
MINNESOTA (-6.5) over Cincinnati
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Carolina
TENNESSEE (-12.5) over St. Louis
OAKLAND (+1.5) over Washington
San Diego (+3.5) over DALLAS
NY GIANTS (-0.5) over Philadelphia
Arizona (-3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Three Best Bets: Baltimore (-13.5), New England (-13.5), Tennessee (-12.5)

Upset Delight: Miami over Jacksonville

Suicide Pool: Tennessee Titans (Eliminated in Week 6 with Philadelphia, Week 8 with NY Jets, Week 9 with Green Bay & Week 11 with Cincinnati)

Last Week: 6-10
Season: 97-94
Best Bets: 16-23
Upset Delight: 7-11
Suicide Pool: 9-4

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

QB Shuffle: Week 13 Notes...

Week 13 is in the books. Here are my post-weekend notes:

THE CLUTCH:

Down 21-19 with 3:44 remaining from their own 26 yard line, Chad Henne drove the Dolphins 51 yards for an eventual 41 yard game winning field goal and the 22-21 lead and eventual win. Henne completed on a 4th and 6 to keep the drive going.

Down 20-17 with 5:28 remaining from their own 20 yard line, Ben Roethlisberger drove the Steelers 80 yards, capped off by a 11 yard touchdown pass, to give the Steelers' a 24-20 lead with just under 2 minutes to go. However, the Steelers ended up losing the game because…

Bruce Gradkowski drove the Raiders 88 yards in 10 plays, capped off by a 11 yard touchdown pass to Louis Murphy, with under 30 seconds to go to give the Raiders the 27-24 upset win.

Down 30-23 with 1:52 remaining from their own 20 yard line, Drew Brees threw a 53 yard touchdown pass on the 5th play to tie the score at 30 with just over a minute to play in regulation. The Saints eventually won in overtime, recovering a fumble in Washington territory, resulting in a field goal eight plays later.

Tied at 17 with 21 seconds left, from their own 48 yard line, Matt Hasselbeck threw a 32 yard pass, which led to a 30 yard game winning field goal as time expired to beat the 49ers 20-17.

THE non-CLUTCH:

Down 19-13 with 2:31 remaining, from their own 23 yard line, Ryan Fitzpatrick took a bad sack, and then threw the game losing interception in their loss to the New York Jets.

Down 17-9 with 1:50 remaining from their own 22 yard line, Kyle Boller threw three straight incompletions for a loss of downs and loss of game to the Chicago Bears.

Down 22-21 with 1:02 remaining, Tom Brady threw an interception on the third play to lose to the Miami Dolphins.

Tied at 30 with 1:19 remaining in regulation, Jason Campbell threw an interception on the fourth play that gave New Orleans pretty good field positioning. Luckily for Campbell the game went to overtime. However, Campbell didn’t get a legitimate chance to redeem himself because of a Mike Sellers fumble, which ultimately cost Washington the loss in overtime.

Did You Know:

Jay Cutler’s Chicago Bears are 5-7. Kyle Orton’s Denver Broncos are 8-3 when he starts.

The Tennessee Titans are 5-1 with Vince Young as a starter and 0-6 with Kerry Collins as a starter.

Tony Romo is 35-16 as a starter, but 5-9 playing in December

Philip Rivers is 42-18 as a starter.

Jason Campbell is 5-15 in his last 20 games.

Matt Schaub's career record is now 15-21.

Brady Quinn has still only one once in 10 career starts.

Kyle Boller has lost his last 10 starts.

Matt Moore has a 3-1 career record.

HOMER REPORT

With losses by Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston, Tennessee, and New England- the Jets have a pretty good shot at making the playoffs if they run the table.

Confidence Scale (out of 10): 7.0- Good news: vs. 1-11 Tampa Bay; Bad news: Sanchez may or may not play because of a knee injury.

FOURCADE FORMULA

Based on my Fourcade formula, here are the top 5 and bottom 5 quarterback performances from week 13.

BEST:

1) Philip Rivers: 373 yards, 2 touchdowns
2) Bruce Gradkowski: 308 yards, 3 touchdowns + clutch performance
3) Drew Brees: 419 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception + clutch performance
4) Kurt Warner: 285 yards, 3 touchdowns
5) Chad Henne: 335 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception + clutch performance

WORST:

28) Kyle Boller: 113 yards, 1 interception + non-clutch performance
29) Josh Freeman: 321 yards, 5 interceptions
30) Ryan Fitzpatrick: 98 yards, 1 interception + non-clutch performance
31) Joe Flacco: 137 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions
32) Matt Cassel: 84 yards, 2 interceptions

QB REPORT CARD:

Based on my Fourcade formula, here are the grades for quarterbacks who have started at least six games through Week 13:

A+: Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Philip Rivers, Vince Young, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers
A: Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady
B+: Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Chad Henne
B: David Garrard
C+: Matt Ryan
C: Matt Schaub, Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck
D+: Shaun Hill
D: Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez
F: Jason Campbell, Jake Delhomme, Matt Cassel, Trent Edwards, Matthew Stafford, Marc Bulger, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kerry Collins

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Week 13 Picks...

Note: Home teams are in CAPS. All Lines courtesy of ESPN.com

NY Jets (-3.5) over BUFFALO
ATLANTA (+4.5) over Philadelphia
CHICAGO (-8.5) over St. Louis
Detroit (+13.5) over CINCINNATI
Tennessee (+6.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
KANSAS CITY (+4.5) over Denver
WASHINGTON (+8.5) over New Orleans
Tampa Bay (+6.5) over CAROLINA
Houston (+0.5) over JACKSONVILLE
PITTSBURGH (-11.5) over Oakland
New England (-6.5) over MIAMI
San Diego (-12.5) over CLEVELAND
SEATTLE (-0.5) over San Francisco
NY GIANTS (+1.5) over Dallas
ARIZONA (+3.5) over Minnesota
Baltimore (+3.5) over GREEN BAY

Three Best Bets: Atlanta (+4.5), Tennessee (+6.5), New England (-6.5)

Upset Delight: Atlanta over Philadelphia, Kansas City over Denver

Suicide Pool: Chicago Bears (Eliminated in Week 6 with Philadelphia, Week 8 with NY Jets, Week 9 with Green Bay & Week 11 with Cincinnati)

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 91-84
Best Bets: 16-20
Upset Delight: 7-9
Suicide Pool: 8-4

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

QB Shuffle: Week 12 Notes...

Week 12 is in the books. Here are my post-weekend notes:

THE CLUTCH:

Down 17-13 with 2:30 remaining, back-up Chris Redman led a 59 yard touchdown drive to win the game for the Falcons, defeating the Buccaneers 20-17. The game winning touchdown pass came on a 4th and goal from the 5 yard line with less than 30 seconds left in the game.

Up 17-14 with 2:31 remaining, Ryan Fitzpatrick put the game away for the Bills, with a 51 yard touchdown pass to Terrell Owens. Buffalo ended up beating Miami 31-14.

Tied at 24 with 5:35 remaining, Donovan McNabb led the Eagles 66 yards for a field goal which gave them a 27-24 lead and eventual win over Washington, with under two minutes remaining.

Down 17-13 with 2:37 remaining, Vince Young led the Titans on a 99 yard touchdown drive to win the game as time expired. Young converted on three fourth downs on the drive, including the 10 yard touchdown pass to Kenny Britt as time expired to beat the Cardinals 20-17.

Down 17-14 with 3:31 remaining, Joe Flacco connected with Ray Rice on a fourth down, which set up a game-tying field goal. However, Flacco had a chance to give the Ravens the win late, but took a sack and fumbled, which led to a 56 yard field goal miss which came up a few yards short. Baltimore went on to win in overtime 20-17.

THE non-CLUTCH:

Down 17-14 with 3:35 to go, Chad Henne threw a costly interception, which ultimately cost the Dolphins the game. Henne threw two more interceptions on the next two possessions, when the game was already out of reach.

Down 27-24 with 1:48 remaining, Jason Campbell from their own 16 yard line, Jason Campbell failed to get a first down, and lost the game to Philadelphia with a 4th down incompletion.

Down 21-20 with 8:24 remaining, Matt Schaub threw a pick-6, which gave Indianapolis a 28-20 lead. On Schaub’s next possession, the Texans fumbled the ball on a Schaub sack, which led to another Colts four plays later to clinch the loss for Houston.

Tied at 17 with 1:51 remaining, back-up Dennis Dixon’s next three possessions (including overtime) went punt, punt, and interception. The interception, thrown at the 50 yard line, and was returned 26 yards, led to the Ravens game-winning field goal.

Did You Know:

Jay Cutler’s Chicago Bears are 4-6. Kyle Orton’s Denver Broncos are 6-3 when he starts.

The Tennessee Titans are 5-0 with Vince Young as a starter and 0-6 with Kerry Collins as a starter. Vince Young is now 23-11 as a starter

Tony Romo is 35-15 as a starter (70%).

Philip Rivers is 41-18 as a starter (69%)

Jason Campbell is 5-14 in his last 19 games.

Matt Schaub's career record is now 15-20.

Matt Hasselbeck is 5-11 in the last two seasons and has missed 11 games due to injury in that span.

Jay Cutler is a career 21-27 as a starter.

Since 2007, Brett Favre has a 32-11 record (74%).
Brady Quinn has still only one once in 9 career starts.

HOMER REPORT

I make a case (although a stretch) for the Jets to make the playoffs here

Confidence Scale (out of 10): 5.0- One game at a time. Cautiously optimistic.

FOURCADE FORMULA

Based on my Fourcade formula, here are the top 5 and bottom 5 quarterback performances from week 12.

BEST:
1) Drew Brees: 371 yards, 5 touchdowns
2) Brett Favre: 392 yards, 3 touchdowns
3) Aaron Rodgers: 348 yards, 3 touchdowns
4) Philip Rivers: 317 yards, 2 touchdowns
5) Vince Young: 387 yards, 1 touchdown + clutch performance

WORST:
28) Jay Cutler: 147 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions
29) Brady Quinn: 100 yards
30) Chad Henne: 175 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions + non-clutch performance
31) Matthew Stafford: 213 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 interceptions
32) Jake Delhomme: 130 yards, 4 interceptions