Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Week 13 Picks...

PICKS:

NY Jets (-3.5) over WASHINGTON
Kansas City (+8.5) over CHICAGO
Carolina (+3.5) over TAMPA BAY
BUFFALO (-1.5) over Tennessee
MIAMI (-2.5) over Oakland
Baltimore (-6.5) over CLEVELAND
ARIZONA (+4.5) over Dallas
Green Bay (-7.5) over NY GIANTS
SAN FRANCISCO (-13.5) over St. Louis
NEW ORLEANS (-8.5) over Detroit

MY VALUE PICKS:

Philadelphia (-2.5) over SEATTLE: I know Maclin is out, McCoy might not play, and it's at Seattle--but I trust Vince Young (31-18 career record) to right the ship. Also- a complete Eagles free-fall would seal Andy Reid's fate.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5) over Cincinnati: Cincinnati is frisky, but I think Pittsburgh will come to play this game and lay the smack down. Especially after how poorly the Steelers played last week vs. the Tyler Palko's.

Atlanta (-2.5) over HOUSTON: I know hardly nothing about TJ Yates. Plus Atlanta is under the radar really good. Same goes for Matt Ryan (career 40-17).

Denver (-0.5) over MINNESOTA: Tim Tebow time. Also- with a Denver win, and Oakland loss--Denver would control its own destiny.

NEW ENGLAND (-20.5) over Indianapolis: Highest line in years--but we're dealing with Dan Orlovsky here. Only hope for Indianapolis is a cheap cover if New England's starters are resting.

San Diego (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE: Yes, Rivers and the Chargers are essentially dead sitting at 4-7 (2-9 vs. spread). However, there's still a speckle of hope that they could win their next five and get some help to sneak into the playoffs. One thing holding them back? Norv Turner. Luckily, they're playing a team who just fired their coach (Jack Del Rio), in the midst of selling their team, and have a not-so-good starting quarterback (Blaine Gabbert). Asking for San Diego to just win isn't asking for much.

TOTAL PICKS: 97-79* (7-9 last week)
MY VALUE PICKS: 39-34 (3-3 last week)

*Note: 8-8, 12-4, 11-5, 8-8, 6-7, 7-6, 9-4, 3-10, 8-6, 9-7, 9-5, 7-9 = 97-79

Monday, November 28, 2011

Week 12 Notes...

THE CLUTCH:

Down 19-17 with 2:59 left, Tony Romo drove the Cowboys 54 yards to set up the game-winning 28 yard field goal by Dan Bailey for the 20-19 victory. The keys to the drive were two consecutive passes to Jason Witten, one for 23 yards, and the other for 6.

Up 13-6, Joe Flacco threw a key 17 yard pass to Ray Rice on a 3rd and 4, to put the Ravens in position to seal the game with a field goal, which was converted 5 plays later, for the 16-6 victory.

Tied at 20 with a minute remaining, Andy Dalton threw a 51 yard pass to AJ Green to set up the game-winning 26 yard field goal by Mike Nugent for the 23-20 victory.

Down 17-13 with 7:14 left, Matt Hasselbeck led the Titans 80 yards, capped by a 2 yard touchdown pass to Damien Williams on fourth down to take the 20-17 lead and eventual victory.

Up 23-20 with 3:03 remaining, John Skelton threw a key 14 yard pass to Larod Stephens-Howling on 3rd down to essentially ice the game for the Cardinals.

Down 24-21 with 5:44 remaining, Mark Sanchez led the Jets 82 yards, capped by a 16 yard touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes for the 28-24 lead and eventual victory.

Down 13-10 with under five minutes remaining, Tim Tebow's key 39 yard pass to Eric Decker on 3rd down, put the Broncos in field goal position to force overtime, which the Broncos won by a 37 yard Matt Prater field goal.

THE non-CLUTCH:

Down 23-20 with 38 seconds left, Colt McCoy had four plays which resulted in a loss of downs and game. McCoy capped off a bad fourth quarter by leading the Browns to zero points on five possessions (interception, 2 punts, missed 55 yard field goal, and loss of downs), going 7 for 12 for 33 yards and a pick.

Down 20-17 with 3 minutes to go, Josh Freeman threw a costly interception, which set up a Titans field goal to take the 23-17 lead. Then after getting the ball back and leading Tampa Bay 55 yards to the Titans 25 yard line, Freeman fumbled on a fourth and one for the loss.

Down 27-19 with three minutes to go, Curtis Painter led the Colts 72 yards to the Panthers 3 yard, before throwing the game-losing interception on a tip ball.

Down 23-20 with 4:09 remaining, Sam Bradford led the Rams to a three and out and a punt. The Rams never got the ball back and lost.

Down 28-24 with a minute remaining, Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Bills 49 yards before throwing three straight incompletions for the loss of downs and as time expired. However, Steve Johnson dropped two passes on the drive, both would have been touchdowns.

Down 20-13 with two minutes remaining, Luke McCown had the Jaguars with a 1st down on the Texans 48 yard line. However, McCown took a bad sack, and then threw an incompletion on fourth down for the loss.

Down 25-20 with time running out, Caleb Hanie faked a spike, then spiked the ball for an intentional grounding call--which resulted in a 10 second run-off and ended the game.

Down 20-17 with 6:18 remaining, Tarvaris Jackson had three possessions to lead a comeback. However, the drives went punt, loss of downs, and interception as Jackson finished the game five for 8 with 25 yards, a sack, and a pick.

Down 13-9 with 4:12 remaining, Tyler Palko led the Chiefs 33 yards, before throwing the game-losing interception. However, in Palko's defense, Dwayne Bowe gave up on the play, which could have been a completed pass or at least a non-interception.

#4CR

BEST

1. Drew Brees: 363 yards, 4 touchdowns, 129.6 passer rating
2. Tom Brady: 361 yards, 3 touchdowns, 134.6 passer rating
3. Matt Ryan: 262 yards, 3 touchdowns, 128.2 passer rating
4. Aaron Rodgers: 307 yards, 2 touchdowns, 116.6 passer rating
5. Andy Dalton: 270 yards, 1 touchdown, 105.6 passer rating + clutch performance

WORST:
28. Matthew Stafford: 276 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions, 66.5 passer rating
29. Curtis Painter: 226 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 60.4 passer rating + non-clutch performance
30. Alex Smith: 140 yards, 1 interception, 61.1 passer rating
31. Blaine Gabbert: 136 yards, 1 interception, 44.6 passer rating + benched
32. Tyler Palko: 167 yards, 3 interceptions, 40.9 passer rating + non-clutch performance

QB RECORDS VS. SPREAD (actual records in parenthesis)

Elite QBs: 37-38 (49-26)

Very Good QBs: 23-32 (31-24)

Average QBs: 45-33 (38-36)

Unknown QBs: 28-32 (22-38)

Bad QBs: 17-10 (15-12)

Backups: 26-31 (20-38)

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Week 12 Picks...

PICKS:

Green Bay (-6.5) over DETROIT
San Francisco (+3.5) over BALTIMORE
ATLANTA (-9.5) over Minnesota
Arizona (+2.5) over ST. LOUIS
NY JETS (-8.5) over Buffalo
CINCINNATI (-7.5) over Cleveland
Chicago (+4.5) over OAKLAND
SEATTLE (-3.5) over Washington
New England (-3.5) over PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants (+7.5) over NEW ORLEANS

MY VALUE PICKS:

DALLAS (-6.5) over Miami: Tony Romo has an awesome Thanksgiving day track record. He didn't play last year because of an injury, but here are his 4 Thanksgiving Day results: W 24-7 over Oakland (2009), W 34-9 over Seattle (2008), 34-3 over NY Jets (2007), and W 38-10 over Tampa Bay (2006). Plus--Matt Moore's due for a stinker.

Carolina (-3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS: Curtis Painter is horrible. Dan Orlovsky is worse.

Houston (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE: Don't be surprised if Matt Leinart not only manages the Texans well, but excels. I wouldn't be surprised if Texans finish the season on a tear. Also--not impressed by Blaine Gabbert whatsoever.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) over TENNESSEE: I think Tampa is underrated, and I think Tennessee is overrated. Plus the combination of getting points and a possible Jake Locker sighting makes me more comfortable with the pick.

Denver (+6.5) over SAN DIEGO: Tim Tebow has not been favored yet this year, but is 4-1. Conversely, Rivers is 2-8 vs. the spread this year. Plus, this team looks like they are officially starting to turn on Norv Turner.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over KANSAS CITY: Tyler Palko alert

TOTAL PICKS: 90-70* (9-5 last week)
MY VALUE PICKS: 36-31 (4-2 last week)

*Note: 8-8, 12-4, 11-5, 8-8, 6-7, 7-6, 9-4, 3-10, 8-6, 9-7, 9-5 = 90-70

Monday, November 21, 2011

Week 11 Notes...

THE CLUTCH:

Down 13-10 with 5:54 remaining from their own 5 yard line, Tim Tebow drove the Broncos 95 yards over a 5 minute span for the game-winning 20 yard touchdown run for the 17-13 victory. Tebow was 3 for 5 with 35 yards passing and 57 yards rushing on the final drive.

Tied at 35 with 5 minutes left, Matthew Stafford led the Lions 80 yards, capped by a 7 yard touchdown pass to Brandon Pettigrew for the lead and eventual victory. Stafford was 3 for 4 with 53 yards on the drive.

Up 28-26 with under 4 minutes, Aaron Rodgers put the game away with a 40 yard touchdown pass to Jordy Nelson.

Down 24-17 with 5:35 left, Rex Grossman led the Redskins 89 yards, capped by a 4 yard touchdown pass to Dontae Stallworth, to tie the game at 24 and force overtime. Then in overtime, Grossman led the Redskins 48 yards for the potential game-winning field goal. However, their kicker Graham Gano missed the 52 yarder. Grossman finished the game on a 13 for 16 tear, throwing for 141 yards and a touchdown. Washington went on to lose because...

Tony Romo drove the Cowboys 37 yards for the game-winning 39 yard field goal by Dan Bailey. The kick was set up by a 26 yard pass by Romo to Dez Bryant.

Up 23-17 with 2:36 left, Matt Ryan's 6 pass to Harry Douglas on 3rd down put the game away for the Falcons against the Titans.

Tied at 10 with 11:36 remaining, Vince Young led the Eagles on an almost 9 minute, 80 yard drive, capped off by a 8 yard touchdown pass to Riley Cooper. Young was 7 for 9 with 67 yards on the game-winning drive.

THE non-CLUTCH:

Down 17-13 with 58 seconds to go, Mark Sanchez took the Jets to the 44 yard line for one last Hail Mary attempt--but ultimately fell short. Sanchez had two timeouts on the final drive, but had to waste one by taking a killer sack.

Down 42-35 with 2:28 left, Cam Newton threw an interception the first play of the drive, setting up a garbage touchdown by the Lions to seal the 49-35 loss for Carolina.

Down 14-10 with 2:49 remaining, Blaine Gabbert ended up driving the Jaguars 69 yards to the Browns 2 yard line with seconds remaining. However, Gabbert's last two passes fell incomplete (one was dropped) as time ran out for the Jaguars loss.

Down 27-21 with a 1st down on their own 44 yard line, Christian Ponder took a sack, and threw two incompletions (one on 4th down) for the Vikings loss to Oakland.

Down 17-10 with under two minutes to go on the Eagles 21 yard line, Eli Manning got sacked from behind and fumbled for the Giants loss.

Down 31-24 with a 1st and goal on Baltimore's 7 yard line with less than a minute to go, Andy Dalton threw an imcomplete pass, got called for intentional grounding, took a sack, and then threw another incomplete pass on 4th down to end the game.

#4CR

BEST:
1. Matthew Stafford: 335 yards, 5 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 121.9 passer rating + clutch performance
2. Tony Romo: 292 yards, 3 touchdowns, 113.8 passer rating + clutch performance
3. Aaron Rodgers: 299 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 112.3 passer rating + clutch performance
4. Matt Ryan: 316 yards, 1 touchdown, 110.9 passer rating + clutch performance
5. Matt Moore: 160 yards, 3 touchdowns, 133.3 passer rating

WORST:

25. Cam Newton: 280 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 interceptions, 50.2 passer rating+ non-clutch performance
26. Ryan Fitzpatrick: 209 yards, 2 interceptions, 45.8 passer rating
26. Tyler Palko: 236 yards, 3 interceptions, 49.9 passer rating
27. Matt Hasselbeck: 124 yards, 1 interception, 49.4 passer rating + injured
28. John Sketon: 99 yards, 3 interceptions, 10.5 passer rating

QB RECORDS VS. SPREAD (actual records in parenthesis)

Elite QBs: 33-36 (44-25)

Very Good QBs: 22-28 (28-22)

Average QBs: 43-32 (36-35)

Unknown QBs: 26-29 (21-34)

Bad QBs: 16-9 (15-10)

Backups: 20-26 (16-31)

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Week 11 Picks...

With a 28-31 record against the spread with #4CR picks so far this year and seeing that there is not much of a record advantage in general with the quarterback categories (even if there’s a clear difference in regular record)—I am nixing #4CR picks all together, and I will be making picks for all the games (highlighting six value picks) each week moving forward. Here it goes...

PICKS:

DENVER (+4.5) over NY Jets
MIAMI (-2.5) over Buffalo
WASHINGTON (+7.5) over Dallas
Carolina (+7.5) over Detroit
Tampa Bay (+14.5) over GREEN BAY
Jacksonville (+0.5) over CLEVELAND:
San Diego (+3.5) over CHICAGO
Philadelphia (+3.5) over NY GIANTS

MY VALUE PICKS:

MINNESOTA (+1.5) over Oakland: Carson Palmer is involved? Gotcha.

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Cincinnati: Flacco & Hyde: good one game, and then horrible the next. Don’t believe me? Here are his passer ratings so far this year: 117.6 (W), 51.2 (L), 103.6 (W), 37.4 (W), 78.5 (W), 61.0 (L), 72.0 (W), 85.4 (W), 67.4 (L). So since he’s coming off a bad game, let’s hope the good Flacco will show up.

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over Arizona: I hate to back Alex Smith, but he is 9-0 against the spread this year. Plus even though Skelton may be a slight upgrade over Kolb, that’s still not saying much.

ATLANTA (-5.5) over Tennessee: I don’t think Mike Smith’s 4th down call last week will have any collateral damage on Atlanta. Plus- you’re in a safe company with Matt Ryan playing at home.

Seattle (+1.5) over ST. LOUIS: Tarvaris Jackson is 5-2 against the spread this year. Conversely, Sam Bradford is 1-6. Plus if Seattle wins this- they have a legit outside shot at the playoffs (9 win territory).

NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) over Kansas City: Tyler Palko alert.

TOTAL PICKS: 81-65* (9-7 last week)
MY VALUE PICKS: 32-29 (3-3 last week)

*Note: 8-8, 12-4, 11-5, 8-8, 6-7, 7-6, 9-4, 3-10, 8-6, 9-7 = 81-65

Monday, November 14, 2011

Week 10 Notes...

THE CLUTCH:

With just over 3 minutes remaining up 24-17, Carson Palmer converted on a 3rd and 11 with a 24 yard pass to Kevin Boss--which forced San Diego to use their remaining timeouts, and let Oakland kill about 2 minutes before punting back to the Chargers. Oakland went on to win the game--and take the sole leadership in the AFC West.

Down 23-20 with 1:55 left, Matt Ryan led the Falcons 85 yards, which set up the game-tying 27 yard field goal by Matt Bryant to force overtime. However, Atlanta went on to lose the game in overtime after a questionable fourth down call- in which Atlanta failed to convert from their own 29 yard line.

In overtime, Drew Brees took advantage of the good field position in overtime, and threw for 15 yards--setting up a 26 yard game-winning field goal by John Kasey for the Saints win.

Up 24-17 with 2:27 remaining, Ben Roethlisberger threw two important completions which helped the Steelers run out the clock for the victory.

Down 13-12 with 7:42 remaining, Colt McCoy led the Browns 56 yards over 5 minutes to the Rams 4 yard line. However, the potential game-winning 22 yard field goal by Phil Dawson was missed for the loss.

Down 17-14 with 5:06 left, John Skelton led the Cardinals 87 yards, capped by a 5 yard touchdown pass to Early Doucet for the 21-17 lead and eventual victory. Skelton was 5 for 8 with 100 yards on the game-winning drive.

Up 22-17 with 5:52 left, Tarvaris Jackson coverted two 3rd down passes, which forced Baltimore to use all their timeouts. Afterwards, Marshawn Lynch's 7 yard run for a 1st down put the game away for the Seahawks.

THE non-CLUTCH:

Down 24-17 with under 4 minutes remaining, Philip Rivers threw a costly interception from Oakland's 46 yard line. After getting the ball back after an Oakland punt, Rivers had another opportunity with 1:04 to go 91 yards. However, the drive was slow, Rivers took a sack, and then fumbled on the last desperation play for the loss.

Down 24-17 on the Steelers 25 yard line with under 3 minutes to go, Andy Dalton threw a costly interception--which ultimately led to the Bengals' loss.

Down 17-10 with 5 minutes remaining, backup Dan Orlovsky fumbled after a sack--losing the ball--which set up the Jaguars game-clinching touchdown for the Colts 10th loss of the season.

Down 21-17 with time running out, Michael Vick threw the game-losing interception for the Eagles' sixth loss.

Down 27-20 with 6:35 remaining, Eli Manning drove the Giants 70 yards down to the 49ers 10 yard line, converting two 4th downs in the process. However, Manning failed to complete the last 4th and 2, when the ball was tipped, ruining the Giants comeback attempt.

#4CR
Each week, here are the best and worst quarterback performances of the week, based on the Foucade Formula.

BEST:
1. Tom Brady: 329 yards, 3 touchdowns, 118.4 passer rating
2. Aaron Rodgers: 250 yards, 4 touchdowns, 140.3 passer rating
3. Tony Romo: 270 yards, 3 touchdowns, 148.4 passer rating
4. Drew Brees: 322 yards, 2 touchdowns, 106.9 passer rating + clutch performance
5. Matt Schaub: 242 yards, 2 touchdowns, 154.9 passer rating

WORST:
28. Rex Grossman: 215 yards, 2 interceptions, 58.7 passer rating
29. Josh Freeman: 170 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions, 33.6 passer rating
30. Ryan Fitzpatrick: 146 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions, 46.6 passer rating
31. Michael Vick: 128 yards, 2 interceptions, 32.5 passer rating + non-clutch performance
32. Curtis Painter: 94 yards, 2 interceptions, 40.1 passer rating + benched

QB RECORDS VS. SPREAD (actual records in parenthesis)

Elite QBs: 31-34 (41-24)

Very Good QBs: 21-24 (26-19)

Average QBs: 40-31 (34-33)

Unknown QBs: 23-27 (19-31)

Bad QBs: 15-8 (14-9)

Backups: 16-22 (12-27)

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Week 10 Picks...

Stay Away Games:
New Orleans at Atlanta (+0.5): Elite vs. Elite
Tennessee at Carolina (-3.5): Average vs. Unknown
St. Louis at Cleveland (-2.5): Unknown vs. Unknown
Detroit at Chicago (-2.5): Unknown vs. Average
New England at NY Jets (-1.5): Elite vs. Very Good
Washington at Miami (-3.5): Backup vs. Backup

Games with Advantages

Baltimore at Seattle (+6.5): Flacco/Hyde’s great finish last week in an enormous win over Pittsburgh makes me extremely cautious about this matchup. This has letdown potential written all over it, especially with Seattle at home.

Buffalo at Dallas (-5.5): I like Dallas to win—but not sure about the line.

MY #4CR PICKS:

SAN DIEGO (-7.5) over Oakland: Literally no matter what, go against Carson Palmer this season. Are people still defending the Palmer trade after 6 interceptions in 6 quarters? Also- if Philip Rivers is going to get his act together at some point this season—doesn’t it have to be now?

GREEN BAY (-13.5) over Minnesota & PHILADELPHIA (-12.5) over Arizona: Two backups (Ponder & Skelton), both on the road, and both very big lines. Thing to note- home teams with a line of over 10 are 7-4 this year vs. the spread. Combined with backup quarterbacks record vs. the spread is 11-20—these are purely two percentage picks.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) over CINCINNATI: At 6-2, this is Cincinnati’s biggest challenge of the season thus far. However, with 4 games left vs. both Pittsburgh and Baltimore—this is where the real Bengals potential will be revealed. I like Roethlisberger & co. to take this semi-handidly.

TAMPA BAY (+3.5) over Houston: Even though their records aren’t the same—I view these teams as pretty even. With that, I’ll take Tampa (who needs this game more) at home, getting the points.

NY Giants (+3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO: I can’t help myself. Even though before last week I was 0-7 in picking against Alex Smith, and last week I finally went with Smith (and won)—I am still waiting for San Francisco to take it down a notch. I think the Giants could win this game out-right, and I like the fact that 49ers would have to win by more than a field goal.

MY VALUE PICKS:

SAN DIEGO (-7.5), PITTSBURGH (-3.5), TAMPA BAY (+3.5), NY Giants (+3.5)

Jacksonville (-3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts are terrible. Painter has lost five covers in the row—so this is riding out the percentages. Also, at 1-4 with the league’s worst quarterback rating (62.0)—if Blaine Gabbert is any good—he can’t lose this game.

Denver (+3.5) over KANSAS CITY: Tim Tebow is the anti-eyeball quarterback. To many, he can’t throw and has looked horrible so far in his short career. However, on the flip side—he’s 2-1 as a starter this year, and has the Broncos one game out of first place, and the Broncos are coming off a game where they scored 38 points. I like Tebow and co. to win this straight up, but will take the points as well.

#4CR PICKS: 26-27 (2-3 last week)
MY VALUE PICKS: 29-26 (4-3 last week)

Monday, November 7, 2011

Week 9 Notes...

THE CLUTCH:

Up 24-16 with 5:33 remaining, Drew Brees led a 53 yard, 4 plus minute drive, capped off by a 34 John Kasey field goal to seal the victory for the Saints over the Bucs 27-16.

Down 17-13 with 3:03 remaining, Tom Brady led the Patriots 64 yards, capped by a 14 yard touchdown pass to Rob Gronkowski to take the 20-17 lead with under two minutes to go. However, New England ended up losing because...

Down 13-10 with under 5 minutes remaining, Eli Manning orchestrated an 85 yard touchdown drive, capped by a 10 yard touchdown pass to Mario Manningham to take the 17-13 lead. After a Patriots score, Manning had another shot down 20-17 with 1:36. Manning proceeded to lead the Giants 80 yards, capped by a 1 yard touchdown pass to Jake Ballard with 19 seconds left for the game-winning score. Manning finished the game 8 for 14 with 97 yards and two touchdowns.

Tied at 13 with 51 seconds left, Sam Bradford led the Rams 40 yards to get into position for the game-winning 42 yard field goal. However, the field goal attempt was blocked to force overtime

Backup John Skelton threw a 13 yard touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald with 5 minutes remaining to tie the game up at 13 vs. the Rams. The Cardinals went on to win the game in overtime on a 99 yard punt return by Patrick Peterson.

Down 20-16 with 2:17 remaining on their own 8 yard line, Joe Flacco proceeded to lead the Ravens 92 yards for a signature Ravens win over the Steelers. Flacco was 7 for 13 on the drive, for 92 yards, including a 26 yard touchdown pass to Torrey Smith with under 20 seconds to go.

THE non-CLUTCH:

Down 21-17 with just under 11 minutes to play, Matt Hasselbeck had four possessions to take the lead or tie the game. Those possessions included 2 three and outs, a fumble (not his fault), and a slow moving final drive, which included two false starts (10 second run-offs), ultimately running out of time.

Down 31-24 with under 5 minutes remaining on their own 46 yard line, Carson Palmer threw three straight incompletions resulting in a punt. The Broncos ended up scoring a touchdown on their next possession to put the game away for the Raiders loss. Palmer had 3 interceptions in the game, for a total of 6 interceptions in 6 quarters this season.

Down 45-37, Philip Rivers threw his third interception with under a minute to go for the Chargers loss to the Packers. Rivers' other two interceptions were Pick-6's.

Down 30-24 with with under three minutes to go with a 1st down on their own 39 yard line, Michael Vick threw two straight incompletions to set up a forth down. On fourth down, Vick's pass to Jeremy Maclin was thrown high--which caused Maclin to fall short of the first down for the Eagles loss to the Bears.

#4CR
Each week, here are the best and worst quarterback performances of the week, based on the Foucade Formula.

BEST:
1. Aaron Rodgers: 247 yards, 4 touchdowns, 145.8 passer rating
2. Matt Moore: 244 yards, 3 touchdowns, 147.5 passer rating
3. Matt Ryan: 275 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 120.7 passer rating
4. Tony Romo: 279 yards, 2 touchdowns, 112.2 passer rating
5. Andy Dalton: 217 yards, 3 touchdowns, 97.9 passer rating

WORST:
24. Colt McCoy: 146 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 79.0 passer rating
25. Michael Vick: 213 yards, 1 interception, 60.5 passer rating + non-clutch performance
26. Ryan Fitzpatrick: 191 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 51.9 passer rating
27. Tarvaris Jackson: 221 yards, 3 interceptions, 40.4 passer rating
28. Curtis Painter: 98 yards, 1 interception, 41.9 passer rating + benched

QB RECORDS VS. SPREAD (actual records in parenthesis)

Elite QBs: 27-31 (37-21)

Very Good QBs: 20-20 (25-15)

Average QBs: 36-29 (30-31)

Unknown QBs: 22-23 (18-27)

Bad QBs: 14-7 (13-8)

Backups: 11-20 (7-25)

Friday, November 4, 2011

Week 9 Picks...

Stay Away Games:
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-8.5): Very Good vs. Elite
Cleveland at Houston (-10.5): Unknown vs. Average
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3.5): Very Good vs. Elite
Green Bay at San Diego (+5.5): Elite vs. Elite
Cincinnati at Tennessee (-2.5): Unknown vs. Average

Games with Advantages:

Chicago at Philadelphia (-7.5): Even though I think Philadelphia is in the midst of not only turning their season around, but turning into a juggernaut—7.5 pts seems alittle too high vs. a frisky Bears team who always plays the Eagles tough (Bears beat them last year 31-26).

MY #4CR PICKS:
Only five picks this week, because of the amount of eligible games (and the fact that I like Chicago +7.5)

NY Jets (+1.5) over BUFFALO: At 4-3 and with a game vs. the Patriots looming, this game means a lot more to the Jets than it does to the Bills. If the Jets lose this game, they will have a very hard time making the playoffs. Plus, it’s back to my betting-against- Fitzpatrick roots!

Atlanta (-7.5) over INDIANPOLIS: The Colts are finally coming home after an atrocious three game road trip, which saw them outscored by a total of 82 points. Unfortantely, they have to play a good Falcons team who not only has to win this game, but is also an indoor team.

KANSAS CITY (-5.5) over Miami: Dolphins are 2-6 vs. the spread this year, so hopefully the Chiefs and Todd Haley’s beard will come through.

St. Louis (+4.5) over ARIZONA: John Skelton sighting! Plus Sam Bradford is back—and getting 4.5 points vs. a horrible team with a backup quarterback. **Note, if AJ Feeley starts, this turns into a no pick, and is filed under "Stay-Away Games."

DALLAS (-12.5) over Seattle: This line seems just a tad too high. However, it's still Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks on the road. Also-for Dallas, a must-win game.

MY VALUE PICKS:

NY Jets (+1.5), Atlanta (-7.5), Kansas City (-5.5), St. Louis (+4.5)

Denver (+7.5) over OAKLAND: As much as Tebow stunk last week, I still trust him more than Carson Palmer coming off a bye week, in which you’re literally not allowed to practice for a good chunk of that time. Denver could actually win this game.

San Francisco (-3.5) over WASHINGTON: Hell has frozen over. Alex Smith is 6-1 (7-0 vs. the spread), is leading comeback victories, and now-I’m betting with him, not against him. However, I do have good reason, which falls under my “No matter what—always go against John Beck” policy.

BONUS PICK (will be used as my 6th Value Pick in the event Sam Bradford does not start this week):

NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) over NY Giants: The Patriots are notoriously unbeatable after a previous loss. Plus, the Giants’ Hakeem Nicks, and Ahmad Bradshaw are likely to miss this game—which seals the deal for making this pick.

#4CR PICKS: 24-24 (2-4 last week)
MY VALUE PICKS: 25-23 (2-4 last week)

Tim Tebow’s play is nothing compared to current QB epidemic

In case you missed it, I wrote an article this week for The Washington Post's Website comparing Tim Tebow's play to the current QB Epidemic. You can check out the article here.